Week 3 CFP Projection: Ohio State, Miami & Georgia Lead as ACC Teams Surge

After three weeks of college football, the early College Football Playoff outlook is already taking shape, with the Ohio State Buckeyes perched at No. 1, the Miami Hurricanes climbing into the top three, and the Georgia Bulldogs consolidating a No. 3 slot. The latest projection, released by Sports Illustrated on September 29, 2025, highlights a surprising surge from ACC programs that were, just a season ago, considered fringe contenders.

Why Week 3 Matters More Than It Looks

Week 3 isn’t just the third set of games; it’s the first real test of depth and consistency after teams have settled into their offensive and defensive schemes. By this point, early‑season hype fades and performance data starts to matter to the CFP selection committee. The rankings released by SI reflect not only win‑loss records but also point differentials, strength of schedule, and injury reports—all factors that could decide who gets a four‑team shot at the national title.

Current Top‑25 Snapshot

Here’s the quick rundown of the top five in the projection:

• Ohio State Buckeyes (3–0) – dominant 37‑9 win over Ohio University last Saturday.
• Miami Hurricanes (3–0) – blown out USF 49‑12 in a game that showcased a revamped air raid attack.
• Georgia Bulldogs (3–0) – 31‑24 victory over Auburn that proved their defense can still bend without breaking.
• Clemson Tigers (2–1) – bounced back with a 27‑14 win at Clemson, South Carolina.
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2–1) – edged out Stanford 21‑20 in a defensive slugfest.

What’s striking is the ACC presence: both Miami and the Clemson Tigers are now inside the top‑10, a shift from last season’s top‑25 where the conference had only one representative.

ACC Teams on the Rise

The ACC’s resurgence can be traced to three key developments:

1. Coaching upgrades. Miami’s new offensive coordinator, Mike MacIntyre, installed a tempo‑heavy spread that leveraged quarterback Ricky Martinez's arm strength, resulting in a season‑high 558 passing yards against USF.
2. Recruiting dividends. The 2024 recruiting class, rated No. 4 nationally by 247Sports, finally matured. Clemson’s defensive line, anchored by sophomore Jalen Harris, posted a combined 4.5 sacks per game.
3. Schedule timing. The ACC avoided early‑season matchups with the Big Ten powerhouses, allowing its teams to build momentum before the conference slates intensified.

As a result, the conference’s projected CFP points—an internal metric used by analysts—have jumped from 92 to 118 over the past two weeks.

Expert Take: Joel Klatt’s Perspective

College football analyst Joel Klatt told Fox Sports on October 1 that the ACC’s offensive evolution could force the selection committee to rethink traditional power‑conference biases. “If Miami keeps posting 45‑plus point games and Clemson stays within striking distance, we could see an ACC team in the top‑four by Thanksgiving,” Klatt said. He added that Georgia’s early‑season defensive lapses might cost them a playoff spot if they don’t tighten up before the SEC showdown with Alabama.

How the Rankings Could Shift

Looking ahead, a few scenarios could reshape the top‑25 projection:

• Injury updates. Ohio State’s star running back Jaxon Daniels suffered a grade‑II hamstring strain in Week 2. If he misses more time, the Buckeyes could slip to No. 2.
• Conference games. The upcoming ACC showdown between Miami and Clemson on October 10 will be a title‑defining moment. A win for Miami could vault them into the CFP conversation, while a Clemson upset would elevate the Tigers into the top‑four.
• Strength of schedule. The Big Ten’s week‑four games feature Ohio State vs. Penn State, a rivalry that could swing the committee’s perception of the Buckeyes’ resilience.

Broader Implications for the Playoff Era

The early projection underscores a trend that began last season: the CFP is becoming less about conference prestige and more about data‑driven performance. With advanced analytics now influencing committee votes, teams that dominate statistically—even from traditionally weaker conferences—are earning their way onto the national stage.

For fans, the upside is clear: more competitive matchups and a genuine chance to see an ACC team in the championship game for the first time since the 2013 season.

What’s Next?

The next wave of rankings is scheduled for release after Week 5, on October 20. Until then, every snap, turnover, and injury report will be scrutinized by analysts, coaches, and the CFP selection committee alike. If Miami can sustain its offensive firepower and Clemson’s defense continues to improve, the ACC could rewrite the playoff narrative before the season even hits its midway point.